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Keeping Tabs On The Weather

Tribune photo by LOIS KINDLE

Forecaster Tony Reynes of the weather service in Ruskin keeps an eye on weather patterns developing in and around the state through several digital images.

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By LOIS KINDLE

The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 15, 2008

Updated:

RUSKIN - The National Weather Service office on 25th Avenue Southeast is South Shore's eyes and ears when it comes to hurricane preparation.

Its job is to work with the National Hurricane Center in Miami to take big-picture weather conditions and localize them for West Central Florida.

Although it has been 87 years since a major hurricane made landfall in Tampa Bay, warning coordination meteorologist Dan Noah said Hillsborough County residents should not be complacent.

"In 2007, Tropical Storm Barry came up the mouth of the bay, and Hurricane Olga lost its steam just before reaching it," he said. "With the right conditions, both storms could have been major.

"South Shore is very vulnerable, especially almost everything west of U.S. 41.

"The No. 1 threat is storm surge, and we do not need a land-falling hurricane in the Tampa Bay region to have one," he said. "In 1985, when Hurricane Elena sat in the Gulf more than 100 miles west of the coast, the storm brought a surge of 7 feet of water into Tampa Bay."

West of U.S. 41 and north of State Road 674, Ruskin has elevations ranging from 1 to 7 feet; Apollo Beach, 1 to 11; and Gibsonton, 1 to 8. Depending on the tides, a Category 1 hurricane in Tampa Bay could produce a storm surge of up to 7 feet; a Category 5, up to 28. The impact of a wall of water being driven by 100-plus-mph wind can be devastating.

One cubic yard of water traveling 10 mph weighs 1,700 pounds, Noah said, meaning that potentially a storm surge could bring in trillions of gallons of water.

"If you live in low-lying areas, you need to have flood insurance and know what you are going to do," Noah said. "Prepare for one storm every year, and you're good to go."

For a hurricane to develop, five basic conditions are needed: water temperatures of 80 degrees at least 150 feet deep; pre-existing thunderstorms; average upper-level winds; a minimum distance of 300 miles from the equator; and a moist, midlevel atmosphere.

"A hurricane is a giant heat engine that can spawn tornadoes more than 100 miles away from its center," Noah said. "Even tropical storms can deliver 3 feet of rain in 24 hours."

The forecast for the 2008 season - June through November - is 12 to 16 storms; 11 is considered a normal season, he said.

"People think last year was a bust, but we had 15 named storms," Noah said. "There were at least 400 fatalities and $5 billion in damage."

The weather service began naming hurricanes in 1950. Prior to that, the Army logged storms with only the year they occurred. Tampa's Fort Brooke began taking observations in 1825.

POTENTIAL HURRICANE STORM SURGE

CATEGORY 1: up to 7 feet, with winds 74-95 mph

CATEGORY 2: up to 13 feet, with winds 96-110 mph

CATEGORY 3: up to 18 feet, with winds 111-130 mph

CATEGORY 4: up to 22 feet, with winds 131-155 mph

CATEGORY 5: 28 feet and higher, with winds 156 and higher

Reporter Lois Kindle can be reached at (813) 865-1553 or lkindle@tampatrib.com.

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